HIGHLIGHTS
Zimbabwe: The country's agricultural production is estimated at 500,000 tonnes, representing a 44 percent drop from last year, according to preliminary CFSAM results. More than two million people are expected to face food shortages from July, peaking to more than four million during the hunger season in the first quarter of 2008. The Government is importing maize from Malawi and Zambia. Approximately, 352,000 MT of cereals is needed to be met by food aid.
Lesotho: More than 400,000 people face food shortages due to severe drought conditions, according to preliminary CFSAM results. Approximately 328,000 MT of cereals are required to feed the country. The harvest, combined with expected commercial imports totalling 219,000 MT and 7,000 MT of existing food aid, will leave a deficit of 30,000 tonnes of cereals. The government declared a food security emergency in the country and appealed for international assistance on 10 July.
Swaziland: Preliminary nVAC results indicate that the country has a food deficit of 32,677 MT. Consequently, some 407,000 people will require urgent food assistance. Humanitarian partners are developing an Appeal for immediate food and agricultural needs.
Malawi: The nVAC preliminary findings indicate that the country is expected to be food secure at both the national and household level, with some pockets of food insecurity that affect could some 519,000 people. Humanitarian partners are focusing on social protection to address the issue of chronic vulnerability.
Zambia: The country produced an estimated 1.37 MT in 2006/07, which is four percent lower than last year's harvest of 1.42 MT. However, the country also possesses carryover stocks from last season's harvest and a grain surplus of about 250,000 MT. The country is expected to export 100,000 MT to Zimbabwe.
Angola: Humanitarian partners continue to assist households affected by the February floods. Seed distribution and shelter materials were distributed to affected households.
Comoros: The Regional Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian for Southern Africa (OCHA ROSA) will be facilitating a contingency planning workshop from 23 July to 4 August 2007. The exercise will specifically look at preparedness measures in response to an eruption of the Karthala Volcano.
Madagascar: According to preliminary findings of the nVAC, 54,000 hectares of rice were damaged by cyclone-induced floods. The country will need about 200,000 MT of rice. Commercial food imports will cover this deficit.
Mozambique: According to preliminary national Vulnerability Assessment Committee (nVAC) results, although the country experienced a marginal increase in cereal production from 2.10 million tonnes to 2.15 million MT, production is expected to be below the national consumption requirement of 2.65 million MT. About 600,000 people may need humanitarian assistance. It is not yet clear whether the country will able to cover the deficit itself or whether it will require external assistance.
Namibia: Recent results for nVAC and the Namibia Early Warning and Food Information Unit (NEWFIU) confirm that domestic cereal production in 2006/7 is estimated at 114,100 tonnes, representing a 40 percent decrease compared to last year. The country's has a deficit of 43,200 tonnes. Despite this, the NEWFIU reports that the country will not require emergency food assistance due to carryover stocks from the 2006 cereal harvest and alternate coping measures.
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Preliminary results from vulnerability and food security assessments conducted in ten SADC countries between May and June were released on 5 July by the Regional Vulnerability Assessment Committee (RVAC). The results point to a marginal increase in cereal production from 23.61 million tonnes (MT) in 2005/06 to 23.69 MT for 2006/07 harvest. Despite this increase, the regional cereal deficit for the 2007/08 marketing year is estimated at 4.35MT compared to 2.18MT during the 2006/07 marketing year.
Some governments will meet their national shortfalls through commercial imports, government aid and subsidies. The international community is assisting those governments wo have either appealed for or indicated a willingness to accept international assistance. Including Swaziland, Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
According to the findings from the Crop Food Supply Assessment Missions, 401,200 people and 407,000 people are estimated to require food assistance in Lesotho and Swaziland. In Zimbabwe, more than two million people are expected to face food shortages from July, peaking to more than four million people during the hunger season in the first quarter of 2008. All member states – except Malawi, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania - experieced a decline in cereal production compared to the previous agricultural year.
In addition to the CFSAM, the regional Vulnerability Assessment Committee (rVAC) results from Mozambique reveal that more than 600,000 people are potentially food insecure due to the drought conditions in the south and this year's flood and cyclone emergency.
Vulnerable groups will begin struggling to meet their basic food needs early on in the consumption year. Although many of the affected areas are structurally grain deficient, this year's projected deficits are more severe than normal. National governments may not have the capacity to cover the entire import requirements and outside assistance may be necessary. Timely support for agricultural inputs, including seeds, fertilizers, and credit facilities to revive agricultural production capacity is required for the 2007/08 cropping season.
These assessments point to the vicious cycle of food insecurity brought on by erratic weather, prolonged drought, poverty and the impact of HIV/AIDS in the region. Whilst immediate food and agricultural assistance is required to help save lives and help in the recovery of livelihoods, it will not significantly change the long-term situation of the affected people. Longer-term development and poverty reduction programmes are needed to address chronic vulnerabilities and help build communities' resilience to deal with natural disasters.
As part of the World Food Programme's (WFP's) southern Africa regional initiative, US$20.6 million will be distributed to Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Mozambique to assist populations devastated by chronic food insecurity and HIV/AIDS.
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