Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
Months of escalating violence in the Palestinian Territories culminated in the 14 June split of Hamas-ruled Gaza from Fatah-controlled West Bank. In Lebanon MP Walid Eido became the seventh anti-Syrian figure to be assassinated since 2005, while six UN peacekeepers were killed in the south, and fierce battles continued between the army and the Fatah al-Islam group. Popular discontent with Pakistan's President Musharraf increased further with demonstrations in support of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry attracting tens of thousands across the country. Violence escalated in Somalia with widespread attacks on Transitional Federal Government officials, troops and civilians. In Niger insecurity mounted in the northern region of Agadez with a surge of attacks by the recently formed Tuareg Mouvement des Nigériens pour la Justice. And the United Kingdom raised its terror alert to maximum after two unexploded car bombs were found in central London and a burning car was crashed into Glasgow airport.
The situation also deteriorated in Afghanistan, the Basque Country (Spain) and the Comoros Islands.
Three situations showed improvement in June. After a nine-month deadlock, Burundi's September 2006 peace deal was reactivated. North Korea invited IAEA inspectors to visit Yongbyon nuclear reactor and agreed on a plan for verifying its shutdown. And in Yemen a ceasefire deal was agreed between the government and Al-Houthi rebels after months of violence in Saada province.
For July 2007, CrisisWatch identifies the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.
JUNE 2007 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, Basque Country (Spain), Comoros Islands, Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Niger, Pakistan, Somalia, United Kingdom
Improved Situations
Burundi, North Korea, Yemen
Unchanged Situations
Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali , Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe
JULY 2007 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Pakistan
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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